For Prelims: Tropical Cyclone, Climate Attribution Science, Grantham Institute, Pre-industrial Climate Baseline, Eyewall, Storm, Date of landfall, Peak 1-min sustained wind speed
For Mains: Climate attribution science, Loss and damage, Climate adaptation, Coastal vulnerability, Disaster risk reduction
Source:
The Hindu
5 facts for one-day exams
SSC, railway, police and teaching exams ask direct questions like these.
- Cyclone Arnab struck eastern India on October 28, 2026.
- Peak 1-minute sustained winds of Cyclone Arnab reached 202 km/h.
- Climate change increased the cyclone's damage by 33%.
- Wind speed increased by ~5% and rainfall rate by 11% due to climate change.
- The study was published by Imperial College London's Grantham Institute.
Why in the news?
A new study by Imperial College London's Grantham Institute quantifies how human-induced climate change amplified the destructive power of Cyclone Arnab (October 2026). The storm's direct economic damage was 33% higher than in a pre-industrial climate baseline, with wind speed up 5% and eyewall rainfall rate up 11%.
Summary
- Cyclone Arnab struck eastern India on October 28, 2026, with peak 1-minute sustained winds of 202 km/h, causing severe damage across Andhra Pradesh.
- Climate change increased the storm's maximum wind speed by ~5% and its eyewall rainfall rate by 11% at landfall, according to the Imperial College Storm Model (IRIS).
- Direct damage to physical assets was 33% higher than a pre-industrial climate baseline, with ~25% of total economic damage attributed directly to climate change.
Highlights
Cyclone Arnab's Fury
Cyclone Arnab struck eastern India on October 28, 2026, with peak winds of 202 km/h, causing widespread damage in Andhra Pradesh.
Climate Attribution Quantified
A study using the Imperial College Storm Model (IRIS) found that climate change made the cyclone 33% more damaging, with 5% stronger winds and 11% more rain.
Economic Impact of Inaction
Direct damage to physical assets was 33% higher than in a pre-industrial climate baseline, with ~25% of total economic damage directly attributed to climate change.
Key Analysis and Impact
The study by Imperial College London's Grantham Institute is a landmark in climate attribution science for India. Using the Imperial College Storm Model (IRIS), researchers compared Cyclone Arnab under current conditions (+1.3°C above pre-industrial levels) against a counterfactual climate without human-induced warming. The results show that climate change increased the storm's maximum wind speed by ~5% and eyewall rainfall rate by 11% at landfall. Direct damage to physical assets was 33% higher, with ~25% of total economic damage directly attributable to climate change. This demonstrates that climate change is not a future threat but a present-day amplifier of disaster costs.
Cyclone Arnab: With vs Without Climate Change
| Parameter | With Climate Change (+1.3°C) | Without Climate Change (Pre-industrial) |
|---|---|---|
| Maximum wind speed | 202 km/h (5% higher) | ~192 km/h |
| Eyewall rainfall rate | 11% higher | Baseline |
| Direct damage to assets | 33% higher | Baseline |
Background GK
Textbook concepts you need to understand this news
- Tropical Cyclone
- A rapidly rotating storm system characterized by a low-pressure centre, strong winds, and heavy rain, forming over warm tropical oceans. In the Indian Ocean, they are called cyclones.
- Climate Attribution Science
- The field of study that quantifies the extent to which human-induced climate change has altered the likelihood or intensity of a specific extreme weather event.
- Grantham Institute
- A research institute at Imperial College London focused on climate change and the environment, named after Jeremy Grantham.
- Pre-industrial Climate Baseline
- The global climate conditions before the Industrial Revolution (roughly 1850), used as a reference point to measure human-induced climate change.
- Eyewall
- The ring of intense thunderstorms surrounding the eye of a tropical cyclone, where the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall occur.
Facts to remember
Tap a card to see the answer. Try to recall it first.
How exams will ask this
- Data: Cyclone Arnab damage increase due to climate change: 33%
- Data: Wind speed increase: ~5%; Eyewall rainfall increase: 11%
- Data: Peak sustained wind speed: 202 km/h; Landfall: October 28, 2026
- Data: Study by: Imperial College London's Grantham Institute; Model used: Imperial College Storm Model (IRIS)
Don't make this mistake!
Examiners may swap the percentages: e.g., state that climate change increased damage by 25% (which is the share of total damage attributed to climate change, not the increase in damage). Or confuse the wind speed increase (5%) with the rainfall increase (11%). Also, be cautious of 'Cyclone Arnab' being confused with other cyclones like 'Remal' or 'Mocha'.
Write these in mains answers
- Climate attribution science, Loss and damage, Climate adaptation, Coastal vulnerability, Disaster risk reduction
Stuck? Get it in one tap
Cyclone Arnab was a strong storm that hit Andhra Pradesh in October 2026. Scientists compared what the storm would have been like without human-caused climate change to what it actually was. They found that global warming made the storm 33% more destructive, like adding a third more power to its punch. This means the damage cost tens of millions of dollars more than it would have under a pre-industrial climate baseline (around 1850).
- Cyclone Arnab struck eastern India on October 28, 2026.
- Peak 1-minute sustained winds of Cyclone Arnab reached 202 km/h.
- Climate change increased the cyclone's damage by 33%.
- Wind speed increased by ~5% and rainfall rate by 11% due to climate change.
- The study was published by Imperial College London's Grantham Institute.
- Environment: Climate Change and its Impacts
- Geography: Tropical Cyclones and Disaster Management
Related concepts: Tropical Cyclone, Climate Attribution Science, Grantham Institute, Pre-industrial Climate Baseline
Practice questions
Pick an answer, then read the explanation.
- Q1Easy
Which institute conducted the study that quantified climate change's impact on Cyclone Arnab?
Explanation: The study was conducted by researchers at the Imperial College London's Grantham Institute. IITM is an Indian institute that studies tropical meteorology, but it did not conduct this specific study. ISRO launches satellites for weather monitoring, and WMO is an international body that coordinates meteorological activities, neither conducted this attribution study.
- Q2Hard
Consider the following statements regarding the study on Cyclone Arnab:
- 1.Climate change increased the cyclone's maximum wind speed by approximately 11%.
- 2.The direct damage to physical assets was 33% higher than in a pre-industrial climate baseline.
- 3.The study used the Imperial College Storm Model (IRIS) for its analysis.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
Explanation: Statement 1 is incorrect: the study found that climate change increased wind speed by approximately 5%, not 11%. The 11% increase was for the eyewall rainfall rate. Statement 2 is correct: direct damage was 33% higher. Statement 3 is correct: the Imperial College Storm Model (IRIS) was used. Hence option B is correct.
- Q3Medium
According to the study, what was the percentage of total economic damage directly attributed to climate change for Cyclone Arnab?
Explanation: The study attributed roughly 25% of the total economic damage directly to climate change. 33% is the increase in direct damage compared to a pre-industrial baseline. 11% is the increase in eyewall rainfall rate, and 5% is the increase in wind speed. Hence option B is correct.
- Q4Medium
What is the primary significance of climate attribution studies like the one on Cyclone Arnab for policy-making?
Explanation: Climate attribution studies quantify the role of human-induced climate change in specific events, providing critical evidence for international climate negotiations, especially on loss and damage. They do not predict cyclone paths (that is weather forecasting), nor do they replace forecasting models. While they help estimate damage costs, their primary policy value is in attribution for climate justice and compensation frameworks.
Frequently asked questions
1. What was the peak wind speed of Cyclone Arnab?
Cyclone Arnab had peak 1-minute sustained winds of up to 202 kilometres per hour at landfall.
2. By how much did climate change increase Cyclone Arnab's damage?
Climate change increased the direct damage to physical assets by 33% compared to a pre-industrial climate baseline.
3. Which model did the researchers use for the study?
The researchers used the Imperial College Storm Model (IRIS) to simulate Cyclone Arnab under current and counterfactual climate conditions.
4. When did Cyclone Arnab make landfall in India?
Cyclone Arnab struck eastern India on October 28, 2026.
All sources
- Original5 November 2026 · Read story
