Developing Countries Face Projected 800 Million Youth Jobs Gap Over 15 Years

The news

World Bank Group President Ajay Banga warned on Wednesday that developing countries face a projected jobs gap of 800 million young people over the next 15 years. Speaking at a climate finance conference in Antalya, Türkiye, he said that of the 1.2 billion youth expected to reach working age, only 400 million are expected to find jobs. The gap, he cautioned, could affect poverty, prosperity, migration and national stability.

Banga noted that developing countries are already grappling with rising debt, conflict, weak infrastructure and natural disasters, and that their resources for meeting development goals are becoming increasingly limited. The conference is being held alongside the United Nations climate conference (COP-31), where representatives from various countries have gathered in Antalya.

The World Bank reported that it mobilised a total of $230 billion for developing countries in the year ending 30 June, including $112 billion in private-sector capital — three times the amount mobilised in fiscal year 2022. Banga said investment has increased in lower-middle-income and upper-middle-income countries, but capital flows to low-income countries have remained stagnant. He described reaching the poorest countries with investment as a major challenge and stressed the importance of public resources for their development.

What is the World Bank's role in employment and development finance?

The World Bank Group was established in 1944 at the Bretton Woods Conference alongside the International Monetary Fund to provide loans and grants for development projects in middle- and low-income countries. Its constituent institutions include the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, founded in 1944, and the International Development Association, created in 1960 to offer concessional loans and grants to the world's poorest nations. The World Bank's annual World Development Report has repeatedly examined the link between employment, poverty reduction and economic stability, most notably in its 2013 edition titled 'Jobs'. The International Labour Organization's Employment Policy Convention of 1964 also obliges ratifying states to pursue active policies designed to promote full, productive and freely chosen employment.

What is the scale of the projected jobs gap?

The projection implies that expected jobs would cover roughly one-third of the 1.2 billion young people reaching working age, leaving two-thirds without jobs under the stated scenario. A gap of this scale could impede poverty reduction and prosperity while increasing pressures associated with migration and national stability.

How does development finance vary across country groups?

The World Bank reported $230 billion in capital mobilised for developing countries during the year ending 30 June, of which $112 billion came from the private sector. Investment gains in lower-middle-income and upper-middle-income countries contrast with stagnant flows to low-income countries. Public resources remain important for reaching the poorest countries.

What kind of development model did Banga advocate?

Banga said developing countries need to adopt development models that are climate-resilient from the start, focusing on stronger infrastructure and institutional capacity. He gave examples such as flood-resistant roads that prevent trade disruption and avoid repeated reconstruction, and schools with better heat protection that allow children to continue learning during extreme temperatures.