Global Warming: Local Temperatures Could Reach 1.5°C-Equivalent Levels Around 2029

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A study published in the journal Nature Climate Change estimates that locations worldwide could reach warming levels equivalent to a 1.5°C global warming scenario around 2029. The finding concerns locally experienced warming and does not mean that every location warms by exactly 1.5°C. Scientists said climate change impacts are no longer a future problem, as many parts of the world are already experiencing higher temperatures and their effects.

By 2025, local warming had reached an estimated 90 to 94 per cent of the levels associated with a 1.5°C warmer world, according to the study. The 1.5°C benchmark refers to a rise in global average temperature relative to the pre-industrial period, commonly represented by 1850–1900. Land generally warms faster than oceans, contributing to pronounced warming in northern land areas such as Arctic regions of Russia and North America, while ocean-influenced areas of Southeast Asia, New Zealand and South America have warmed comparatively less. Northern Africa has also warmed faster than many tropical African areas.

Which body assesses climate science for the Paris Agreement?

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, provides the scientific assessments that underpin the Paris Agreement's temperature goals. Its 2018 special report on global warming of 1.5°C concluded that limiting warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C would substantially reduce risks to human and natural systems. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, adopted in 1992, is the parent treaty under which the Paris Agreement was negotiated. The Kyoto Protocol, adopted in 1997, was the earlier emissions-reduction treaty that the Paris Agreement effectively succeeded after 2020.

What is the 1.5°C benchmark and the Paris Agreement goal?

The 1.5°C warming benchmark compares the global average temperature with the pre-industrial period, commonly represented by 1850–1900. The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015 by nearly 200 countries, aims to hold global warming well below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, in order to reduce the risk of severe natural disasters such as floods, droughts and heatwaves.

What does the study say about regional warming differences?

The study highlights that land warms faster than oceans, leading to rapid warming in northern land areas including Arctic regions of Russia and North America. In contrast, ocean-influenced regions such as Southeast Asia, New Zealand and southern South America have experienced comparatively less warming. Northern Africa has also warmed faster than most tropical African areas. These regional differences mean that the impacts of climate change will vary, requiring adaptation planning that reflects local exposure to heat, floods and drought.

What is the way forward for countries?

Scientists said countries need both mitigation, which addresses the causes of warming, and adaptation, which reduces vulnerability to its effects. Regional planning should reflect differences in exposure to heat, floods and drought. Monitoring temperature trends and preparing for existing climate impacts are important alongside efforts to limit further warming.