APEC 2026: Planned US-China-Russia Talks Highlight Nuclear Arms Control After New START Expiry

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The White House confirmed on Friday that the leaders of the United States, China and Russia plan to meet on November 19, 2026, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen, China. The planned trilateral gathering of President Donald Trump, President Xi Jinping and President Vladimir Putin would be the first such meeting of the heads of the world's biggest nuclear powers. Analysts said expectations are low that the talks will lead to major breakthroughs and that they will be heavier in symbolism than substance.

The meeting comes at a complicated moment in relations between the three countries. Mr. Trump has sought to build his relationship with Mr. Putin even as the Russian leader has persisted in his nearly five-year-old war with Ukraine and as Moscow has deepened its partnership with Iran. The U.S. President has insisted that the meeting would provide an opportunity to discuss the U.S. war with Iran and his goal of reaching a three-way agreement on nuclear arms stockpiles. The last nuclear arms pact between Russia and the United States, New START, expired in February 2026, removing caps on the two largest atomic arsenals for the first time in more than a half-century. Mr. Trump rejected a Russian call to extend the two-country deal and called for a new pact that includes China. However, Beijing's arsenal of more than 600 warheads, according to Pentagon estimates, is far smaller than the more than 5,000 warheads each held by the U.S. and Russia, and China has shown little interest in developing a nuclear pact.

For the Kremlin, the planned trilateral meeting is a coveted chance to posture as a superpower on par with Washington and Beijing. For China, by agreeing to host the meeting, Mr. Xi may be calculating that the moment offers an opportunity to flex its growing clout. However, the trilateral could also undercut China's push to portray itself as a defender of free trade at APEC, said Hoo Tiang Boon, a professor of Chinese foreign policy at Nanyang Technological University. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed concern that the meeting could serve as a platform for discussing a possible Ukraine deal behind Kyiv's back. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed comparisons to the 1945 Yalta Conference, noting that any potential agreements reached in Shenzhen cannot be enforced on others.

What was the 2010 New START treaty's verification regime?

The New START treaty, signed in 2010 and in force from 2011, limited the United States and Russia to 1,550 deployed strategic warheads and 700 deployed delivery systems each. It included a verification regime of on-site inspections, data exchanges and notifications that provided both sides with transparency into each other's nuclear forces. The treaty succeeded the 1991 START I treaty, which expired in 2009, and the 2002 Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty, which lacked verification measures. New START was originally set to last ten years with an option for a five-year extension, which the Biden administration agreed to in 2021, pushing the expiry to February 2026.

What was the New START treaty and why did it expire?

New START was the last nuclear arms pact between the United States and Russia. It expired in February 2026, removing caps on the two largest atomic arsenals for the first time in more than half a century. The United States rejected a Russian proposal for a one-year extension and instead sought a modernised agreement that would include China.

What are the prospects for a three-way nuclear pact?

Pentagon estimates put China's arsenal above 600 warheads, compared with more than 5,000 each for the United States and Russia. The disparity complicates a three-way agreement: Beijing has shown little interest in joining a pact. Analysts said the meeting may be more symbolic than substantive, and a joint statement on denuclearisation would be a surprise.

How have the leaders met before?

Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi have met more than 40 times since Xi became president in 2013. Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin have met face-to-face on seven occasions, most recently in Alaska in August 2025. Mr. Xi and Mr. Trump have held face-to-face talks on eight occasions, including a September state visit to Washington by Mr. Xi.