World Bank pegs India's extreme poverty at 2.6% but Thali Index shows 30% cannot afford two meals

The news

The World Bank has estimated India's extreme poverty at 2.6 per cent, based on the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) for 2023-24. The figure, if accepted, would suggest that severe economic deprivation is nearly eliminated. However, a new metric called the Thali Index, proposed by researchers in 2025, directly contradicts this assessment by measuring how many complete meals an individual can afford.

The Thali Index uses a home-cooked vegetarian thali priced at ₹30, as estimated by CRISIL for 2023-24, as its benchmark. Applying this to the same HCES data, the index finds that up to 50 per cent of rural Indians and 20 per cent of urban Indians cannot afford two thali meals a day. Even after imputing the value of subsidised food, the figure drops to 40 per cent and 10 per cent respectively, meaning approximately 30 per cent of the Indian population cannot afford two square meals a day. The authors argue that the World Bank's poverty line may be set too low because households prioritise non-food expenses such as rent, medicines and school fees, leaving food as a residual item. They warn that the low poverty estimate could create complacency in policymaking, even as food price inflation has trebled between January and September 2026.

How does the Thali Index differ from the World Bank's method?

The World Bank's poverty estimate is a headcount ratio that applies a poverty line — the minimum acceptable consumption level — to the HCES data. The exact goods and prices used to construct that line are not disclosed. The Thali Index, by contrast, uses directly observable food consumption data and a fixed price of ₹30 per thali, a culturally relevant unit of a complete meal. The authors argue that if a minimum food consumption level is the criterion for being non-poor, the poverty line must be revised upward to reflect actual deprivation.

What has the World Bank's estimate achieved and missed?

The World Bank's estimate suggests that extreme poverty in India is nearly eradicated, which could lead to a shift in policy focus away from poverty alleviation. However, the Thali Index reveals that a significant section of the population still faces food insecurity, implying that the poverty line may not capture the real burden of non-food expenses. The authors also note that the finding carries over to the UNDP's Multidimensional Poverty Index to the extent that it relies on the Bank's poverty line.

What is the next step urged by the authors?

The authors call for an urgent review of policies to control food price inflation, which has risen every month between January and September 2026, trebling over the period. They argue that food price inflation can only be controlled by managing food supply, particularly by increasing agricultural productivity to produce more food at a steady price.